| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Oregon | 27-34 | 1703.4 | -55.9 | 1647.5 | 20.9% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Memphis | 38-20 | 1647.5 | +10.6 | 1658.2 | 66.6% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | W | South Dakota | 38-24 | 1658.2 | -12.4 | 1645.8 | 94.8% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Western Michigan | 32-7 | 1645.8 | +61.9 | 1707.7 | 61.1% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Utah State | 37-18 | 1707.7 | +11.7 | 1719.4 | 80.7% |
| 6 | Oct 11 2026 | W | Fresno State | 38-31 | 1719.4 | +5.7 | 1725.1 | 69.9% |