| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | South Florida | 7-34 | 1748.8 | -123.8 | 1625.0 | 70.2% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | W | Eastern Washington | 51-14 | 1625.0 | +58.3 | 1683.3 | 90.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Air Force | 49-37 | 1665.1 | +28.9 | 1694.0 | 71.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | App State | 47-14 | 1694.0 | +38.2 | 1732.2 | 83.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Notre Dame | 7-28 | 1732.2 | +10.5 | 1742.7 | 10.3% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | New Mexico | 41-25 | 1742.7 | +23.9 | 1766.6 | 74.5% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | UNLV | 56-31 | 1766.6 | +27.8 | 1794.4 | 66.9% |
| 10 | Oct 24 2025 | W | Nevada | 24-3 | 1794.4 | +6.1 | 1800.5 | 93.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Fresno State | 7-30 | 1800.5 | -80.1 | 1720.4 | 86.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | San Diego State | 7-17 | 1726.0 | -15.3 | 1710.7 | 64.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Colorado State | 49-21 | 1710.7 | +25.6 | 1736.3 | 85.0% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Utah State | 25-24 | 1736.3 | -4.0 | 1732.3 | 69.2% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | W | UNLV | 38-21 | 1732.3 | +16.0 | 1748.3 | 56.9% |
| 17 | Dec 13 2025 | L | Washington | 10-38 | 1748.3 | -27.8 | 1720.5 | 24.6% |